42 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. It looks like we’ve got VA, NM, CO, NH and AK pretty much rapped up.  OR looks great, and NC is leaning our way.  MN is a genuine toss-up, especially considering MN’s same-day registration.  So the polls of registered voters may be inaccurate.  My gut tells me that we win MN, and I really think that we will pick up every one of those seats.

    GA and KY are the most obvious picks for sixty, but I think that Scott Kleeb might just pull his race out.  Between the Obama-Esch effect in the 2nd and Kleeb’s relative strength in the 3rd, I think we might just have an upset in NE.

    I do think that Martin would get demolished in the run-off.  Here’s to hoping the Libertarian’s total is depressed – if it went to the run-off and Chambliss wins, it will be spun as a huge loss for the incoming Obama administration.

  3. Sen.: NH, NC, GA

    House: AK, CO-4, KS-2, MN-6, MO-9, NH-1, NC-8, NM-1, WA-8, and WI-8.  I expect to win all except GA-Sen, MN-6, and MO-9.  I sure hope Dr. Millionare kicks their asses again.  If he can win this one, I think he entrenches himself and will be there (Green Bay, Fox River valley) for a long time.  

  4. do it do it.

    no fear of a Georgia runoff. I think that would be a great thing. always like the chances against incumbent in a runoff especially with this momentum

  5. but not feeling very hopeful. Both Greenwald and Hubler are on tv, but I think Greenwald’s buy is pretty small. Her ad is great, and Obama is going to romp in IA-04, but I am afraid she didn’t get the outside support she needed.

  6. PA-11

    LA-06

    TX-22

    How many are we going to lose? Mahoney is a goner.

    NY state senate

    In spite of the tsunami in NY, Republicans may hold on to a majority.

    Hopefully DE state senate goes Dem.

    I am more interested in doing well in the state legislatures than in scoring more than 30 (net – after adjusting for dem losses) in congress. The state legislature are going to play a key role in redistricting.

    Governor races

    Both NC and WA

    Republicans seats

    We will win MN-03 and MD-01? If we win MD-01, we will do very well in MD.

    Is NY-26 too much too hope for?

    Senate

    OR, MN and NC.

    Hoping for at least 1 of GA, MS, KY and Maine. If Republicans hold onto them all, they have played very good defense.

  8. Mississippi has swung against Musgrove big, so that one is pretty much out now.  Georgia looks headed for a run-off that Martin would liekly lose.  So it probably comes down to KY.  The polls in KY aactually seem to be trending our way a bit this week.  Today’s R2K poll only had McConnell up 47-44.  We’ll soon find out.

  9. I’m still very thinly hopeful about Maine being close enough for a squeaker Allen win.

    Heller/Derby could be a squeaker in Nevada if enough Republican leaners withhold votes for Heller, like last election.

    I’d love to see recent polling of Colorado-4.  The likes of Sabato are all mumbling about a Musgrave defeat but I’ve seen no numbers.

    I’m hoping for some unexpectedly large number of real, confidence building, victories in Florida at the state House or US House levels.

  10. True story.  I hear a knock at my door a little while ago.  I go to answer the door and noone is there. But suddenly I hear scuffling in my front yard.  Turned on my porch light and I’ll be damned!  McCain and Obama were brawling in my front yard.  Seriously.  Two of my friends dressed up for Halloween in Obama and McCain outfits to my surprise and decided to play a prank on me.  Funniest thing I’ve ever seen.

  11. WA-Gov: D+.5

    AK-Sen: D+19

    MS-Sen-B: R+13

    CA-46: D+3

    FL-25: D+1

    LA-01: R+4

    NE-02: R+2

    NH-01: D+6

    NM-02: D+7

    NY-13: D+23

    OH-02: R+5

    PA-11: D+4

    TX-22: R+3

    WY-AL: R+6

    MN-Sen: D+1

    Tiebreaker:  

    Coleman 46 … Franken 47 … Barkley 7

  12. Bradley effect.  We lost the white house, and a lot of downballot races because of negative coattails.  We were barely maintaining our current numbers in the house IIRC.  Shudder  Please call everyone you know and make them vote on election day.  

  14. Looking good for the defeat of anti-progressive amendments.

    http://www.surveyusa.com/clien…

    CA-Pres

    Obama (D) 60%

    McCain (R) 36%

    Proposition 4 amends the California constitution so that a minor who wishes to have an abortion must wait at least 48 hours after a physician has notified the girl’s parent.

    Yes 40%

    No 46%

    Proposition 8 would eliminate the right of Same-Sex Couples to marry.

    Yes 47%

    No 50%

    1. I’d kind of given up on that race until this last week. It would be sweet if we swept the house races in Nevada and New Mexico. As far as other races, I’m itching for upsets in SC-01 (Linda Ketner), AZ-03 (Bob Lord), CA-46 (Debbie Cook), ID-01 (Walt Minnick), WY-AL (Gary Trauner), IA-04 (Becky Greenwald), and MO-09 (Judy Baker). I feel like Darcy Burner will win.

      The whole 60 seats in the senate thing has kind of lost its charm for me in the last week or two. Once we get into the high fifties, I think we will have the votes on some important issues (with Snowe, Specter, etc.) and, even if we get to 61 seats, we really only have 60 because we have to kick out Lieberman, and we do have some shitty senate candidates (Musgrove for sure; I’ve read bad things about Lunsford), so I care more about who wins and the quality of Democrats we have than the number of Democrats we have. I know numbers are important, but if we have a Dem. majority that pulls the same corporate-grovelling bullshit we’ve seen for the last two years I’m over it.  

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